"The Descent of Finance" by Niall Ferguson, Professor of History and Business at Harvard Business School.
Page 58: "Economic models in mathematics failed badly i.e. it would be realistic to have visions of human behavior which is irrational at best. I sent my blogs to the same in the past for your reference."
Page 78 : The End of Rational Economics. by an author who is a behavioral economist. Human behavior can hardly be measured and such assumptions are to be abandoned or rejected to be found in my blogs.
Page 46:" International Economic Order: China's GDP in 2013 is half of the US., in 2006 it was ony one fifth as big. The US$ has halved in value against the Chinese Yuan (RMB) following a Russo-Chinese initiatives to replace the greenback as the international reserve currency with IMF's SDR pronounced as "Sadders" Oil is priced in SDR.(sic)"
US$ is and still will be international business currency from the past tradition with future prospects as I would envision in the years to come.
Goldman Sachs predicted that China's GDP might equal that of the US by 2027.
Predictions must be proven by empirical evidence as years go by.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, a graduate student from China in 1947 but still a learner to study Sino-Economics in action to share thoughts with online readers.
July 5, 2009 at 1.38 p.m.
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Friday, July 3, 2009
Washington Post, July 3, 2009 Signs of Recovery?
Page A18:
"The best hope for improvement is for economic stimulus spending to kick in more vigorously.
It is too early to judge the effectiveness of the stimulus plan, given that the spending package is only starting to ripple through the economy." Chief economist Steven Ricchlute said:"The economy is still in consolidation and will be through year-end." It is educated guesstimate.
My view: Hopefully the positive scenario will be on the way with faith,hope and love.
Page A16:
Steven Pearlstein wrote:
"Households are overburdened with debt, consumer spending is likely to remain sluggish. The best hope for a sustained recovery may lie with a spurt of business investment in new technology that enhances productivity." C+I sectors are mentioned here. Human behavior is hard to predict,really.
It should be noted that C+I+G+F would be the complete Aggregate Demand. The above is C and I. We must take into consideration of Government Sector and Foreign Trade and data would be fluid at best. Moreover,capital formation is one of the functions. O=f(A,K,L) as the equation for Total Output as Aggregate Demand.(sic)
Output is the function of Technological Progress, Capital Formation and Labor Force Development. I am inclined to stress L for labor force development i.e. Education and Training for enhancing productivity. My reasoning rests here for reader's comments.
The above rationale would be applicable to US economy and China's economy as well in my humble opinion.
Friday,July 3, 2009 at 10.42 a.m.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, a lifelong student of economics to compare notes with others for the necessary learning processes especially Lingonomics with Etiology.
"The best hope for improvement is for economic stimulus spending to kick in more vigorously.
It is too early to judge the effectiveness of the stimulus plan, given that the spending package is only starting to ripple through the economy." Chief economist Steven Ricchlute said:"The economy is still in consolidation and will be through year-end." It is educated guesstimate.
My view: Hopefully the positive scenario will be on the way with faith,hope and love.
Page A16:
Steven Pearlstein wrote:
"Households are overburdened with debt, consumer spending is likely to remain sluggish. The best hope for a sustained recovery may lie with a spurt of business investment in new technology that enhances productivity." C+I sectors are mentioned here. Human behavior is hard to predict,really.
It should be noted that C+I+G+F would be the complete Aggregate Demand. The above is C and I. We must take into consideration of Government Sector and Foreign Trade and data would be fluid at best. Moreover,capital formation is one of the functions. O=f(A,K,L) as the equation for Total Output as Aggregate Demand.(sic)
Output is the function of Technological Progress, Capital Formation and Labor Force Development. I am inclined to stress L for labor force development i.e. Education and Training for enhancing productivity. My reasoning rests here for reader's comments.
The above rationale would be applicable to US economy and China's economy as well in my humble opinion.
Friday,July 3, 2009 at 10.42 a.m.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, a lifelong student of economics to compare notes with others for the necessary learning processes especially Lingonomics with Etiology.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
USAToday, July 2-5, 2009: July 4th Thoughts
Thoughts on Independence Day, July 4th: Several letters to the Editor: Page 10A:
Warren Paulins of Ohio wrote:
"We must cooperate in sincere efforts to fix our broken health care system, upgrade the educational systgem, rewrite an outdated and confusing tax code and work harder to eliminate class hatred and prejudice."
A typical case in Maryland in the 20th centuary(1983-1984): Two Americans of Chinese ancestry (with tenures) had to leave the same college after 17 and 18 years of teaching. One was forced to resign and the other was terminated on the basis of numerical rating from the authorities. (Revised the rules for faculty with tenure as the so-called basis)
Such discrimination is obvious to observers but it is difficult to fight the administration with bias during that period.
Matthew Obligschlager in Kentucky wrote:
"We're starting to lean toward policies that perpetuate a redistribution of resources (or socialism) America will not remain a beacon to the world if we keep on this path. The beauty of the American dream cannot be allowed to fade." My Comment: America has two sectors: the federal government(public sector) comes to rescue when the private sector is in trouble but NOT Socialism per se. It is Socio-Economics. Economics is designed to serve the society)
It is known that President Obama has multicultural heritage and his cabinet members are Americans of varied ethnic background to represent USA as the melting pot of all races. It is the ideal goal to utilize the expertise of all the talents regardless of race,color or creed.
As a Kentucky Colonel doing eleemosynary work, I agree with Matthew Obligschlager that more equitable distribution of income and wealth would be in the best interest of the nation. The middle class is the backbone of any nation for peace and economic development. The majority of the people belong to the middle class as ordinary folks. China's official name is People's Republic of China and the middle class is expanding in China. US Constitution starts with "We,the People" There is the common goal for Sino-American Economics as I would envision.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, a witness of a changing USA in the 21st century.
Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 3 p.m.
Warren Paulins of Ohio wrote:
"We must cooperate in sincere efforts to fix our broken health care system, upgrade the educational systgem, rewrite an outdated and confusing tax code and work harder to eliminate class hatred and prejudice."
A typical case in Maryland in the 20th centuary(1983-1984): Two Americans of Chinese ancestry (with tenures) had to leave the same college after 17 and 18 years of teaching. One was forced to resign and the other was terminated on the basis of numerical rating from the authorities. (Revised the rules for faculty with tenure as the so-called basis)
Such discrimination is obvious to observers but it is difficult to fight the administration with bias during that period.
Matthew Obligschlager in Kentucky wrote:
"We're starting to lean toward policies that perpetuate a redistribution of resources (or socialism) America will not remain a beacon to the world if we keep on this path. The beauty of the American dream cannot be allowed to fade." My Comment: America has two sectors: the federal government(public sector) comes to rescue when the private sector is in trouble but NOT Socialism per se. It is Socio-Economics. Economics is designed to serve the society)
It is known that President Obama has multicultural heritage and his cabinet members are Americans of varied ethnic background to represent USA as the melting pot of all races. It is the ideal goal to utilize the expertise of all the talents regardless of race,color or creed.
As a Kentucky Colonel doing eleemosynary work, I agree with Matthew Obligschlager that more equitable distribution of income and wealth would be in the best interest of the nation. The middle class is the backbone of any nation for peace and economic development. The majority of the people belong to the middle class as ordinary folks. China's official name is People's Republic of China and the middle class is expanding in China. US Constitution starts with "We,the People" There is the common goal for Sino-American Economics as I would envision.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, a witness of a changing USA in the 21st century.
Thursday, July 2, 2009 at 3 p.m.
U.S. Confirms Participation in Shanghai Expo
Washington Post, July 2, 2009 on page A9:
The United States confirmed that it will take part in next year's World Expo in Shanghai, saying it wants to showcase U.S. technology and values in a bid to boost ties with China.
As an American citizen of Chinese ancestry and a native of Shanghai, I welcome such cooperative effort to strengthen friendship of two nations on both sides of the Pacific for the wellbeing of humanity. I believe any exchange of technology would benefit humankind in the 21st century.
Page A12: World Bank Reports Record Year of Aid. Bank President Robert B. Zoellick has good insights about China to be a stakeholder in global finance.
Gold Research Findings may be as follows:
1. Gold predicted to go from $940+ to $1,000+ an oz in the months to come.
2. CD's are not attractive but insured.
3. Stock market maybe very shaky.
4. Global war on terror would cause financial and economic fluctuations.
5. Government Bailouts and Inflation may affect consumers' confidence.
6.Circa 11.2 trillion National Debt that grows at a rate of 2 billion a day in the general estimate.
In short, folks would like to invest in precious metals or other tangible valuables instead of papers without intrinsic substance but confidence only.
Hong Kong Phoenix TV media experts reported the forum of the future of Hong Kong and Shanghai to be the financial center of the world. Both have competitive edges in varied ways. How soon? That remains to be seen with evidence in the decades to come.
However,we must have faith,hope and love for global financial recovery during the course of time. Have patience apropos of the governments in the world with economic clouts.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, a graduate student from Shanghai in 1947 and a lifelong learner to watch economics in action with reflective knowledge plus Confucian wisdom. July 2, 2009 at 12.48 p.m.
The United States confirmed that it will take part in next year's World Expo in Shanghai, saying it wants to showcase U.S. technology and values in a bid to boost ties with China.
As an American citizen of Chinese ancestry and a native of Shanghai, I welcome such cooperative effort to strengthen friendship of two nations on both sides of the Pacific for the wellbeing of humanity. I believe any exchange of technology would benefit humankind in the 21st century.
Page A12: World Bank Reports Record Year of Aid. Bank President Robert B. Zoellick has good insights about China to be a stakeholder in global finance.
Gold Research Findings may be as follows:
1. Gold predicted to go from $940+ to $1,000+ an oz in the months to come.
2. CD's are not attractive but insured.
3. Stock market maybe very shaky.
4. Global war on terror would cause financial and economic fluctuations.
5. Government Bailouts and Inflation may affect consumers' confidence.
6.Circa 11.2 trillion National Debt that grows at a rate of 2 billion a day in the general estimate.
In short, folks would like to invest in precious metals or other tangible valuables instead of papers without intrinsic substance but confidence only.
Hong Kong Phoenix TV media experts reported the forum of the future of Hong Kong and Shanghai to be the financial center of the world. Both have competitive edges in varied ways. How soon? That remains to be seen with evidence in the decades to come.
However,we must have faith,hope and love for global financial recovery during the course of time. Have patience apropos of the governments in the world with economic clouts.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, a graduate student from Shanghai in 1947 and a lifelong learner to watch economics in action with reflective knowledge plus Confucian wisdom. July 2, 2009 at 12.48 p.m.
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
TIME magazine, July 6, 2009 issue. Economics deals with human behavior
Page 18: Chicago economist Gary Becker said: "When you give a lot of discretion to regulators, they don't use the tools that are given to them." What are the tools? Human behavior can never be measured for clarity.
Milton Friedman thought that instead of tweaking interest rates, the FED should just automatically increase the money supply 3% to 4% a year. Money supply is a function and Money stock should be coordinated with credit system. See an article on " Monetary Policy Revisited" published by Atlantic Economic Journal for reference.
Stanford economist John Taylor concocted i.e."Tiao he" in Pin Yin system of romanization. There are three elements such as inflation, current economic growth and long-term trend growth to be churned out as a suggested FED interest rate target. Such approach can hardly be possible with accuracy.
It is to to be known that Economics is a behavioral science and the lifestyle of the people should be taken into consideration plus the lifelong educational endeavor to be stressed as guidelines.
All the assumptions are to be validated by empirical evidence during the course of time but there is always a time lag. This sounds outlandish but it is very true. That is the nature of economics.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao comparing views with economists for reasonable understanding.(sic)
Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 3.06 p.m.
Milton Friedman thought that instead of tweaking interest rates, the FED should just automatically increase the money supply 3% to 4% a year. Money supply is a function and Money stock should be coordinated with credit system. See an article on " Monetary Policy Revisited" published by Atlantic Economic Journal for reference.
Stanford economist John Taylor concocted i.e."Tiao he" in Pin Yin system of romanization. There are three elements such as inflation, current economic growth and long-term trend growth to be churned out as a suggested FED interest rate target. Such approach can hardly be possible with accuracy.
It is to to be known that Economics is a behavioral science and the lifestyle of the people should be taken into consideration plus the lifelong educational endeavor to be stressed as guidelines.
All the assumptions are to be validated by empirical evidence during the course of time but there is always a time lag. This sounds outlandish but it is very true. That is the nature of economics.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao comparing views with economists for reasonable understanding.(sic)
Wednesday, July 1, 2009 at 3.06 p.m.
Carktke ib $1 Billion Asia Fund and Community Colleges
Washington Post, July 1, 2009 page A17:
The new fund will concentrate on high-growth private firms in emerging markets such as China... Carlyle has $84.5 billion of assets under management. It invests in buyouts, growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance around the world.
Page B1,B3: Washington Post, July 1, 2009
Community Colleges see demand as the Headline in the METRO section:
"The Future of Community Colleges" published by the Congressional Record,July 18, 1974 with a vision for the 21st century from the 20th century publication.
The Obama administration is promising to help 1,200+ community colleges, which educate about 12 million students, or 44% of all undergraduates, including the majority of blacks and Hispanics, and Asians. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel recently said that the administration was working on a plan that would allow as many as 5 million more students or laid-off workers to attend the schools, which are at the fore of retraining efforts.
Editorial: "Teachers are the single most critical factor in improving student achievement, it is time to start drawing distinctions in how they are retained, promoted and rewarded."
As a teacher since 1945, I fully support such rationale as a former Fulbright Senior Scholar in Hong Kong,1989-1990. I shall continue my efforts to teach students who have achieved distinction with their talents at www.Dictyon.net,the gateway to global languages.
Moreover, the following works are dedicated to stress the role of community colleges:
1. Keys for Economic Understanding(1971) www.Amazon.com book catalog. The theme is to emphasize training and retraining.
2. Keys to Economic Understanding(1976) www.ask.com for reference.
3. Work and Study Cycle Theory (1978) to be validated and implemented in the USA or China to enhance productivity for economic development.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao endorsing the mission of teaching and learning to promote lifelong education for the wellbeing of humanity on earth.
Wednesday,July 1, 2009 at 11 a.m.
The new fund will concentrate on high-growth private firms in emerging markets such as China... Carlyle has $84.5 billion of assets under management. It invests in buyouts, growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance around the world.
Page B1,B3: Washington Post, July 1, 2009
Community Colleges see demand as the Headline in the METRO section:
"The Future of Community Colleges" published by the Congressional Record,July 18, 1974 with a vision for the 21st century from the 20th century publication.
The Obama administration is promising to help 1,200+ community colleges, which educate about 12 million students, or 44% of all undergraduates, including the majority of blacks and Hispanics, and Asians. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel recently said that the administration was working on a plan that would allow as many as 5 million more students or laid-off workers to attend the schools, which are at the fore of retraining efforts.
Editorial: "Teachers are the single most critical factor in improving student achievement, it is time to start drawing distinctions in how they are retained, promoted and rewarded."
As a teacher since 1945, I fully support such rationale as a former Fulbright Senior Scholar in Hong Kong,1989-1990. I shall continue my efforts to teach students who have achieved distinction with their talents at www.Dictyon.net,the gateway to global languages.
Moreover, the following works are dedicated to stress the role of community colleges:
1. Keys for Economic Understanding(1971) www.Amazon.com book catalog. The theme is to emphasize training and retraining.
2. Keys to Economic Understanding(1976) www.ask.com for reference.
3. Work and Study Cycle Theory (1978) to be validated and implemented in the USA or China to enhance productivity for economic development.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao endorsing the mission of teaching and learning to promote lifelong education for the wellbeing of humanity on earth.
Wednesday,July 1, 2009 at 11 a.m.
Keeping abreast of what is going on as the way to go
Reminiscence of World War II apropos of Sino-American Cooperation and Collaboration:"Huiyilu" or" Jingyantan" in Pin Yin system of romanization. For elaboration of Pin Yin see "A Glimpse of the Chinese Language," available free of charge in PDF format at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica,California,the Think Tank via www.rand.org for reference.
Air Force Magazine/April 2009 on page 59 President Franklin D. Roosevelt pins the Medal of Honor on Doolittle's uniform at a White House ceremony.(Photo) Many American Air Force folks went back to China recently to recollect fond memories six decades ago as I saw on TV. I was a student at St.John's University in Shanghai and witnessed B52 during the period of 1945-46. Such scene is still vivid in my mind now.
Shanghai will be the host of World Expo in 2010 to welcome all visitors to see the changing China especially in Shanghai with international investments as evidence.
Page 17: Lt. General Charles Stenner, Chief of the Air Force Reserve said: Reserve is "Strategic"
"While the military's reserve components are a critical part of the operational force, they must preserve their traditional role as a strategic reserve force. We have been and continue to be required as a strategic reserve,period."
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao sharing thoughts with readers to remember cherished Sino-American friendly background with promising vision in the 21st century.
"Express Paper",July 1, 2009 issue on page 12: Towns across the US are struggling to pay for holiday tradition. A Quite Fourth would still be the celebration in the hearts and minds from sea to shining sea or from Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans to be exact for the United States of America. America's day starts at Guam,the former Governor attended the University of San Francisco when I was at USF in 1947-48.
Wednesday,July 1, 2009 at 10 a.m.
Air Force Magazine/April 2009 on page 59 President Franklin D. Roosevelt pins the Medal of Honor on Doolittle's uniform at a White House ceremony.(Photo) Many American Air Force folks went back to China recently to recollect fond memories six decades ago as I saw on TV. I was a student at St.John's University in Shanghai and witnessed B52 during the period of 1945-46. Such scene is still vivid in my mind now.
Shanghai will be the host of World Expo in 2010 to welcome all visitors to see the changing China especially in Shanghai with international investments as evidence.
Page 17: Lt. General Charles Stenner, Chief of the Air Force Reserve said: Reserve is "Strategic"
"While the military's reserve components are a critical part of the operational force, they must preserve their traditional role as a strategic reserve force. We have been and continue to be required as a strategic reserve,period."
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao sharing thoughts with readers to remember cherished Sino-American friendly background with promising vision in the 21st century.
"Express Paper",July 1, 2009 issue on page 12: Towns across the US are struggling to pay for holiday tradition. A Quite Fourth would still be the celebration in the hearts and minds from sea to shining sea or from Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans to be exact for the United States of America. America's day starts at Guam,the former Governor attended the University of San Francisco when I was at USF in 1947-48.
Wednesday,July 1, 2009 at 10 a.m.
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