Steven Pearlstein, economics columnist wrote: "Buckle Up - We haven't reached bottom yet : - Stocks are down again on Oct.15, 2008
"Nobody should pay much attention to those economic forecasts churned out by computer models. These models are like homing pigeons - the way they are programmed, they desperately want to get things back to "normal" as quickly as possible. And because the models are based on what has happened in the past, they are almost useless in predicting how the economy will respond to extreme event, like the bursting of the biggest credit bubble in history."
I remember Prof. John K. Galbraith of Harvard said decades ago: There are two kinds of forecasters: 1. Those who don't know and 2. Those who don't know they don't know. I believe in such true understanding with wisdom.
Francis Shieh a.k.a. Xie Shihao, trying to learn the truth in economics as a myth as expressed by Economist Lester Thurow at MIT decades ago. Oct. 15, 2008 at 1.50 p.m.
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